Optimal Bet

NFL Weekly Projections

Market-based rankings and projections. Filter by position and scoring.

How we build weekly NFL player projections from Vegas player props

Here’s the deal. If you play fantasy, you care about usage and efficiency. Vegas player prop odds give us a live read on both. Books post lines for receptions, rushing yards, passing yards, touchdowns, and more. We take those public numbers, clean them up, and turn them into fantasy football projections you can sort by position and scoring (PPR, Half PPR, Standard, DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo).

What we’re using

  • Player prop odds and lines posted by sportsbooks (the “Vegas odds” everyone talks about).
  • Multiple books to get a broader picture of the market; fresher, widely available lines matter.
  • Week‑to‑week context like roles and injuries, reflected through changes in posted props.

From markets to fantasy points

  • Normalize: pull current player prop lines across books, set aside stale or obvious outliers.
  • Weight: emphasize widely used, liquid markets so one oddball number doesn’t swing a player.
  • Estimate: translate lines/odds into per‑stat baselines (think receptions, receiving yards, rush yards, pass yards, TDs).
  • Score: apply your scoring (PPR, Half PPR, Standard, DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo) to get fantasy points.
  • Rank: sort within position and across FLEX so you can compare RB/WR/TE on the same board.

Why lean on player props

  • Stat‑specific: props are about a player’s stat line, which lines up with how fantasy scoring works.
  • Responsive: when roles shift or news hits, posted lines tend to move, and our projections reflect it.
  • Market view: multiple books help smooth out one‑off numbers and provide a consensus snapshot.

Updates to expect

  • Lines adjust in real-time during the week and so do our projections.
  • The inputs behind these NFL player projections are refreshed to track current posted markets.

Putting it to work

  • Dial in your league’s scoring, sort by position, and skim the stat columns for the “why.”
  • Use it alongside your news feed and matchup notes to tighten start/sit calls and DFS shortlists.